It was fascinating to review the last decade in our February issue and realise that in 2 000, Sunu Gonera hadn’t directed a commercial, YouTube and The Callsheet didn’t exist, and the digital revolution was still embryonic. A lot can change in ten years.

This issue, we decided to look forward and ask some of the key players from the Noughties to make some predictions on where they see the industry in ten years.  

Many of them protested that we’re likely to look back and laugh when we read these predictions then, as nothing is certain these days, but they still came up with some brave and bold prophesies.

Ross Garland
Producer, Rogue Star Films
We know the more things change, the more they stay the same.

On that view we will see more of the incremental progress that has led us on such an amazing journey over the past ten years.

If we look at the true highlights of the period, it’s been in the local films and filmmakers that have punched through domestically and internationally.

In most cases, this was driven with private money, backed up in varying degrees by the critical DTI rebate that came in 2004, and to a lesser degree with NFVF and IDC partial funding.

So we will continue to make better and better movies, with an increased portion being lower budget and from younger, emerging filmmakers. Watch the animation sector in particular.

These films will continue to be driven with private funding, which is the best chance for the industry’s sustainability and growth. The game-changing event will be a company from the private sector getting into content in a big way. In a perfect world, this would be a distributor or a broadcaster but there is nothing in the past ten years to suggest that this is what will happen. It is more likely out of the might of a listed company or the private equity arena.

Private investors remain skeptical of film in general. But we have almost reached a tipping point in investment opinion, off the back of a now impossible to avoid list of successes. I think this will translate into a capital injection as we slowly emerge from this recession, which will significantly boost the quantity of local output.

This will feed back into shaking up the distribution and broadcast market, though not massively, as this will remain Hollywood-driven. Of course, all of the above may be wish fulfilment. On the platform front, we will continue to follow internationally-driven innovations, with some lag time due to the small size of our productive economy.

This means we will be able to exploit older platforms like cinema for longer than elsewhere, as small screen viewing will take off much later here than in developed economies.

Francois Verster
Documentary director
I imagine internet television will entirely take over broadcasting - internet and TV will be indistinguishable (and there will probably be yet another interface to compete...).

Film will sadly disappear for good. Cellphones will not be the future of video.

Long-distance transmission of material will become easier and faster (internet or otherwise), which will start facilitating self-broadcasting.

Cinemas will have to diversify. The cinema experience will become a “special occasion” thing, like rock concerts in the age of stereo home systems. Audiences will want to see more of themselves and their own issues reflected, at least in South Africa.

Martin Cuff
Martin Cuff Consulting
Honestly? If we continue in this direction with location challenges, by 2020 there will only be studio-based productions in Cape Town. Little that relies on access to public space will be able to film. And I’m dead serious about this: the risk of considering Cape Town will be just too great.

The rising cost of living in South Africa will also threaten international service sector growth. Airline tickets and overweight baggage charges directly cripple us.

The stills sector has imploded over the advent of digital film, which means production is no longer limited to the vicinity of a processing lab.

One trend to note: already nearly half of SAASP members conduct stills shoots internationally in the winter. Spain, Portugal, Croatia, and Thailand are all big SAASP destinations already.

I think there’ll be even more cross-over of roles (i.e. production companies servicing films and commercials and stills) as the latter two become unsustainable on their own.

On the positive side, digital technologies will make productions cheaper to film, edit, distribute and market. This may create untold opportunities for local filmmakers but it will be more a Nigerian model than a western one. Audience (or lack of it) becomes the critical tipping point for local films in 2020.

The filming we see on the streets in 2020 is going to be an entirely different looking industry than the vibrant, big-budget production we see today.

Jason Xenopoulos
Creative director, 2.0 Media
We live in a technology-mediated culture. Since the beginning of time, storytelling has been shaped by the tools at our disposal. From oral tales to cave paintings; parchment scrolls to newspapers; from ancient Greek Theatre to the birth of modern cinema. Today, humankind is empowered with technologies that we have barely begun to comprehend. And, as in the past, these new powers will radically reshape the way in which we tell our stories.

The internet has triggered an appetite for snack-sized content, changing the shape and form with which we construct popular, everyday narratives.

The explosion of User-Generated Content (UGC) has birthed a generation of “prosumers” (consumers who are also producers), fundamentally influencing the popular aesthetic of filmed entertainment and redefining the line between filmmakers and their audiences.

The proliferation of mobile media devices such as the iPod and iPad is fundamentally reshaping the canvas on which our filmed entertainment is viewed.

At the other end of the spectrum, cinema exhibitors are desperately trying to claw back audiences by elevating the experience. The commercial success of Avatar has accelerated an already robust trend towards 3D.

During the next 10 years, we will see other new innovations designed to help retain an audience for the silver screen.

The stratospheric growth of the interactive games industry will continue alongside cinema’s own move towards technology-enhanced spectacle, giving rise to a new hybrid of interactive, non-linear narrative entertainment.

These revolutionary changes in technology and consumer-behavior will redefine the nature of what in 2020 we may still – nostalgically - refer to as film.  

As a tiny, 0.6% blip on the world cinema market, South Africa will follow rather than lead these changes, taking its cue from developments across the Atlantic.

Having said that, our continued assimilation into western culture may give rise to more regular international hits like District 9... But I’m afraid to say we still won’t be Hollywood (or Silicon Valley as the showbiz capital may be known in 2020).

Chris Roland
Producer/director, ZenHQ
Assuming no political landmines, by 2020 South Africa should not only continue to be a favored production destination, it should reach its potential of developing and producing viable films for both the local and international markets.

The trend internationally can be summed up as “Local is lekker.” We are seeing global audiences embracing locally-made films.

By 2020, South Africa will have developed a film culture with an appetite for local stories. It may only develop into a cottage industry over the next ten years, but watch out because local will be the area to watch.

Shots on set will instantly be sent to edit suites, handsets and other platforms anywhere in the world, keeping everyone on the same page at the same time.

Prints, tapes, external drives and even data cards will be replaced by satellite and internet delivery systems, providing cost-effective and instant distribution to content buyers.

The cellphone will do much more than make calls. It will have become the preferred device for capturing, storing, viewing and sharing content, which can be viewed on larger home and office systems via wireless connectivity.

It will become a mini-office, a road map, a security system, your bank, and a place to shop. I’m hoping they add a vibration mode for those long hours on set!

The African continent has substantial potential. However, with the exception of a few new international players launching subscription based multi-channel platforms, Africa will be no closer to becoming a viable market for content sales than it is today. The ills that plague Africa, including corruption, war, poverty and general instability are too great and too many to be overcome in the next ten years.

A young commercial director in 2020 will look upon a roll of film stock as a fascinating bit of history!

Due to the proliferation and ease of creating and distributing content on a mass scale, mediocrity will, unfortunately, take center stage for a while. Fortunately, it won’t last as audiences turn from the novelty of technology back to the expression of art.

Kevin Kriedemann
Editor, The Callsheet
The film and photographic industries will move closer together. This will be partly because of commercials and stills service companies looking to diversify into each other’s markets, but also because we’ll see more and more stills cameras like the Canon 7D which can also shoot HD, with multipurpose lighting equipment following suit. This will mean even more photographers follow in the footsteps of the likes of Kevin Fitzgerald into directing.

Convergence in general will speed up, with everything from commercials to feature films needing to become more multiplatform. This won’t just be about different forms of video content and video games - it will include events, publishing, art and merchandising.

Africa will play a larger role than before, with our advertising agencies and director-based production companies increasingly working on continental campaigns as brands target Africa’s largely untapped buying power.

South Africa will start making and servicing computer games, as  that industry becomes part of the film industry, or rather vice versa.